OKBET Sports Betting: Raring to make money this football season? Several experts share their tips

Legal sports betting in the Philippines has been in effect for two weeks, so you’ve figured it out by now. You’re winning 80% of your bets, the bookies are wailing into their dwindling coffers, and…

……Okay, fine.

This season’s first full college football weekend is likely to be the first deep dive for many gamblers who have wanted to test the waters since the PH Legislature approved the activity last spring and set it in motion for good on Aug. 15.

But do you have a chance of winning? Let’s just say there are reasons why there are hundreds of sportsbooks and millions of sob stories.

That said, it doesn’t mean the guys in charge don’t want you to have a good time. After all, if you don’t believe you have a chance…

“People see it as a challenge. ‘Can I beat the bookmaker?'” said Nick Bogdanovich, the director of trading and odds expert for William Hill, which manages the sportsbook at several Philippine casinos, including Prairie Meadows in Altoona. “Everyone has TV and social media information in their hands, as well as some of the same information in their eyes.”

“… And I believe that sports betting is the best bet a person can make. Consider the lottery, baccarat, blackjack, horse racing, and so on — the sportsbook is frequently the lowest hold (or takeout total) on a casino’s totem pole. That is the player’s best opportunity.”
“People think it’s a get-rich-quick scheme, and some people make a living off of it.” “But there aren’t many,” said Mark Gallant, a writer for the Action Network, a sports website devoted to betting analysis. “And nobody does it quickly unless they hit a crazy parlay or future.”

Which brings us right into some of the hot topics and strategies to give you a fighting chance…

Manage your finances

A near-universal theme is that your betting amounts should be consistent to begin with, regardless of the topic or your starting cashflow. Three sources polled for this article all agreed that a bet within 3 to 5% of your total stake is a reasonable value if you plan to bet on games or props on a regular basis.

If you win early, don’t be tempted to run a hot hand if your goal is to wager long-term; the same goes if you lose early.

“If you multiply your unit size by two, you can lose everything you’ve earned in two bets,” Gallant said.

Another good rule of thumb, according to US-Bookies betting analyst Alex Donohue, is to only bet what you can afford to lose financially or emotionally.

“Ask yourself how you would feel and how it would affect you if (your bet) lost. “It’s time to call it a day the minute it’s no longer entertaining or fun,” Donohue said. Even if you’re on a winning streak, having betting at the forefront of your mind at the expense of enjoying the sporting event and moment for what it is isn’t good news.”

Limiting the temptation of parlays — a series of bets on multiple games or multiple bets within the same game — is part of keeping your funds in check. With a parlay, a small bet can create a larger windfall, but keep in mind that if even one element of that ticket goes wrong, your entire wager is a loser.

“Trying to turn $10 into $10,000, even though that’s the fun part and what most people want to do,” Bogdanovich said, “straight bets keep you around a lot longer.” “The longshot parlay is the most fun, but it’s like staring into the sun.”

Gallant also stated that sportsbooks frequently hold more money (known as the juice) to place parlay bets than they do straight bets, so payouts are lower than they should be based on implied odds.

“You can lose everything you’ve earned in two bets if you multiply your unit size,” he said about betting in general.

Keep big favorites in mind

The concept appears simple. For example, you might believe that betting on Roger Federer or Serena Williams in an early-round U.S. Open tennis match is as safe as it gets. Or betting on a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament beating a No. 16 straight-up. So, even if the rate of return is 1/10 of betting on a point spread — in other words, wagering $10 to win another buck back from the books — it’s a safe way to slowly build

That is, until everything goes wrong.

“You might be able to win 10 or 20 of them in a row,” Gallant said, “but one loss, even one, and you’re screwed.” People do not realize that fairly large upsets occur on a semi-regular basis. They believe that something with an implied probability of 80% is effectively 100%.”

Again, it is, until it isn’t.

Don’t be afraid of failing

Points, runs, and goals are exciting, and the bookmakers know it, so the vast majority of bets on point totals will be for the “over” in these situations.

“As a result, the odds for the opposing ‘under’ side are frequently more than fair,” Donohue said.

“Because the public always favors the favorite and favors the over, the bookmaker is usually rooting for the underdog or the under,” Bogdanovich explained.

Discover your prop niche.
In an increasingly competitive environment, sportsbooks are offering more in-game proposition bets among more popular sports and leagues, which can lead to an obscure line of betting victories if you find an area of hyper-focused expertise.

Gallant, for example, knew a colleague who was winning bets on who would gather jump balls in basketball games. The bets were placed as 50-50 propositions, similar to a coin toss, and the colleague was winning those bets at an extremely high rate.

Or, use the game’s conditions to your advantage and be ready to wager soon. Gallant specifically monitors weather forecasts that may have an outsized influence on a result, such as a strong wind, rain, or a blustery Saturday or Sunday afternoon on the gridiron.

“When it’s windy out, I play a lot of unders, both in college and in the NFL, and both have yielded a lot of historical success” if you can act quickly, he said.

Legalized gambling
Without getting too civic-minded, know that licensed sportsbooks in the Philipines will emphasize fair treatment for bettors, and any lost investment at the very least contributes to public finances.

The head takes precedence over the heart

You want to bet on your alma mater in this season’s highly anticipated Cy-Hawk game? Fine. How about win totals for those two top-25 teams? Sure.

“People see it as a challenge,” said Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading and odds expert for William Hill, which manages the sportsbook at several Ph casinos, including Prairie Meadows in Altoona. “Everyone has information from TV and social media in their hands, as well as some of the same information in their eyes.”

“… And I believe that sports betting is the best bet a person can make. Consider the lottery, baccarat, blackjack, horse racing, and so on — the sportsbook is frequently the lowest hold (or takeout total) on a casino’s totem pole, providing the player with the best opportunity.”
“People think it’s a get-rich-quick scheme, and some people make a living off of it,” said Mark Gallant, a writer for the Action Network, a sports betting analysis website. “And, unless they hit a crazy parlay or future, nobody does it quickly.”

Which brings us to some of the hot topics and strategies that will give you a fighting chance…

Take charge of your finances

Regardless of the topic or your starting cashflow, a near-universal theme is that your betting amounts should be consistent to begin with. If you plan to bet on games or props on a regular basis, three sources polled for this article all agreed that a bet within 3 to 5% of your total stake is a reasonable value.

If you win early, don’t be tempted to run a hot hand if your goal is to wager long-term; likewise, if you lose early, don’t be tempted to run a hot hand.

“You can lose everything you’ve earned in two bets if you multiply your unit size by two,” Gallant explained.

According to US-Bookies betting analyst Alex Donohue, another good rule of thumb is to only bet what you can afford to lose financially or emotionally.

“Ask yourself how you would feel and how it would affect you if (your bet) lost,” Donohue said. “It’s time to call it a day the minute it’s no longer entertaining or fun.”

Limiting your exposure to parlays — a series of bets on multiple games or multiple bets within the same game — is an important part of managing your money. A small bet on a parlay can result in a larger payout, but keep in mind that if even one component of the ticket fails, your entire wager is a loser.

“Trying to turn $10 into $10,000 is fun, but straight bets keep you around a lot longer,” Bogdanovich said. “The longshot parlay is the most fun, but it’s like staring into the sun.”

Gallant also stated that sportsbooks frequently hold more money (known as the juice) to place parlay bets than straight bets, resulting in lower payouts than would be expected based on implied odds.

“If you multiply your unit size by two, you can lose everything you’ve earned in two bets,” he said of betting in general.

Keep the big names in mind

The concept appears straightforward. For example, you may believe that betting on Roger Federer or Serena Williams in an early-round U.S. Open is a good idea. An open tennis match is as safe as they come. Or, in the NCAA Tournament, betting on a No. 1 seed to beat a No. 16 straight-up. So, even if the rate of return is one-tenth that of betting on a point spread — in other words, wagering $10 to win another buck from the books — it’s a safe way to gradually build a portfolio.

Until, of course, everything goes wrong.

“You might be able to win 10 or 20 in a row,” Gallant said, “but one loss, even one, and you’re screwed.” Many people are unaware that large upsets occur on a semi-regular basis. They believe that an implied probability of 80% is effectively 100%.”

It is, once again, until it isn’t.

Do not be afraid to fail

Points, runs, and goals are exciting, and the bookmakers know it, so the vast majority of bets on point totals in these situations will be for the “over.”

“As a result,” Donohue explained, “the odds for the opposing ‘under’ side are frequently more than fair.”

“Because the public always favors the favorite and the over,” Bogdanovich explained, “the bookmaker is usually rooting for the underdog or the under.”

Find your prop niche

In a more competitive environment, sportsbooks are offering more in-game proposition bets among more popular sports and leagues, which can lead to an obscure line of betting victories if you find a hyper-focused area of expertise.

Gallant, for example, knew a colleague who was consistently winning bets on who would collect jump balls in basketball games; the bets were placed as 50-50 propositions, similar to a coin toss, and the colleague was consistently winning those bets.

Gallant specifically monitors weather forecasts that may have an outsized influence on a result, such as a strong wind, rain, or a blustery Saturday or Sunday afternoon on the gridiron, and be ready to wager soon.

“When it’s windy out,” he said, “I play a lot of unders, both in college and in the NFL, and both have yielded a lot of historical success.”

Gambling is now legal

Without getting too political, know that licensed sportsbooks in the Philippines will prioritize fair treatment for bettors, and any lost investment contributes to public finances at the very least.

The head is more important than the heart.

You want to bet on your alma mater in this year’s highly anticipated Cy-Hawk game? No problem. How about win totals for those two top-25 teams? No problem.